Do you know the second definition of the catchphrase “serve plus one”?

 Rafael Nadal exemplified and even perfected the first definition of "serve plus one," especially on clay, when he capitalized on his viciously spinning lefty forehand by maneuvering to hit it more than 80% of the time after his first serve went in. The tactic proved especially effective when Rafa served wide in the ad court. Opponents had to hit returns from outside the alley, and Novak Djokovic, the greatest serve returner in tennis history, was the only player who could significantly lower that 80% by hitting returns sharply and accurately enough to force Nadal to hit backhands more often.

Carlos Alcaraz uses his version of “serve plus one” on both sides almost equally well with slice serves in the deuce court and wicked kick serves in the ad court. His speed, athleticism, dynamic volleying, and unpredictable shot selection enable him to whack forehands frequently after his first serve to go for winners or immediately dictate the rally.

Jannik Sinner, an apostle of relentless power, has set the bar even higher with “serve plus two.” If his explosive first serve doesn’t produce an ace or a return error, the returner often faces the tennis version of Scylla and Charybdis, the twin monsters of Greek mythology: a devastating forehand or an almost as potent backhand.  

The women’s game also boasts a “serve plus two” exponent in Elena Rybakina, a 6’ tower of power. Unlike the aforementioned and more versatile superstars, Elena must play “first-strike tennis” because her defense is far inferior to her offense. The latter is ignited by a picture-perfect serve in the 115-125 mph range and complemented by groundstrokes in the 75-85 mph range.

The astute Andy Roddick, an ESPN analyst, during Flavio Cobolli’s decisive 7-5, 7-6 (4), 6-3 Wimbledon fourth-round victory over No. 5 seed Alex de Minaur, gave a new, incisive meaning to “serve plus one.” Roddick pointed out that this tactic also relates to aggressive positioning.

On the Wimbledon grass, Cobolli, after his first serve, strikes his first groundstroke inside the baseline 68% of the time—a far higher percentage than any other player in either draw. Perhaps IBM Watson did not take this important statistic into account when it strangely gave De Minaur a 64% chance of victory before this match, which Roddick, John McEnroe, and other experts rated a toss-up. Cobolli’s best shot, a huge forehand, naturally becomes even more effective when he belts it from inside the baseline.

Going into the Roland Garros final, where he lost to Alexander Zverev in five sets, Cobolli struck forehands 78% of the time after his first serve. I don’t have the same stat for Wimbledon so far. But whatever it is, the rest of the ATP Tour players and their coaches should pay attention to his other critical, positional stat—68%.

Conversely, those players who scamper back behind the baseline a little or a lot after serving—such as Daniil Medvedev—should reconsider their tactical retreat or face the dire consequences.