Leading Women

Zheng Qinwen — “After this gold medal, I feel, finally, I can play tennis more relaxed,” declared Zheng after she became China’s first Olympic singles tennis gold medalist. The WTA’s 2022 WTA Newcomer of the Year and 2023 Most Improved Player of the Year accelerated her momentum this season when she reached her first Grand Slam final in Melbourne. There, Aryna Sabalenka overwhelmed her 6-3, 6-2. With revenge on her mind, Zheng will prevail in their quarterfinal duel, taking out defending champion Coco Gauff in the semis, and No. 4 Elena Rybakina in the final. Besides being more relaxed and confident, the No. 7 Zheng got zinged with another label after a disgruntled No. 15 Emma Navarro lost to her 6-7, 7-6, 6-1 in the Olympics quarterfinals: “cutthroat.” That, plus the 21-year-old Chinese’s athletic, aggressive game and her ambition to emulate two-time major queen Li Na make Zheng my predicted winner.

Ayrna Sabalenka — The consensus favorite because she captured her two Grand Slam titles on the Australian Open hard courts, Sabalenka appears happier and more relaxed than ever. For that, Aryna credits her boyfriend. Her confidence rose when she overpowered No. 1 Iga Swiatek 6-3, 6-3 in the Cincinnati Open semifinal en route to her first title since the AO in January. Ghosts of winnable, three-set matches lost at past US Opens will haunt her again against Zheng.

Coco Gauff — The American heir-apparent to Serena Williams seemingly arrived as a can’t-miss champion when she smartly switched tactics to overcome Sabalenka 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 in the 2023 US Open final. Not so fast. After auspiciously winning Auckland to start 2024, she failed to reach a final in 14 tournaments. What went wrong? “The thing about the tears [… you just don’t consciously know the expectations that creep into your cells in your body,” Chris Evert told The New York Post. “Everybody from Day 1 has thought about Coco, ‘She’s the next Serena Williams. She’s going to be the next one that dominates.’ That stays with you for a long time. I think she’s got to start to figure out her own game plan.”

Iga Swiatek — Eurosport expert and seven-time major champion Mats Wilander offered the world No. 1 and 2022 US Open winner some tactical advice to excel on hard courts. “To me, she needs to start thinking about, ‘How do I win tennis matches on clay and try to play like that on other surfaces, and realising I am never going to win as much on hard court and grass than I have at Roland Garros. Just look at her big idol, Rafael Nadal. He did exactly that. He won a lot of tournaments trying to play clay-court tennis, most of the matches. And she needs to get back to playing like she does at Roland Garros. If it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work, but that’s where she’s comfortable. The style of tennis is what she needs to get back to playing.” This pundit respectfully disagrees. Iga needs more variety. That means coming to net and using angles and touch shots. In truth, that’s what Nadal did on hard and grass courts.

Elena Rybakina — The sleeping giant from Kazakhstan started 2024 with a bang. She crushed five foes at Brisbane, culminating with a 6-0, 6-3 rout of Sabalenka in the final. But since then, her only top-10 wins have come against No. 9 Maria Sakkari and Swiatek. Rybakina has yet to reproduce the form that brought her the 2022 Wimbledon title. She has a decent draw and could face Swiatek in the semis if both get that far. Her favorite surface is hard courts, but she has to be rusty after playing—and losing—only one match since being upset by Barbora Krejcikova in the Wimbledon semis. Let’s hope for an intriguing quarterfinal match with ebullient, late-blooming No. 5 Jasmine Paolini, who beat her at Roland Garros.

Dark Horses: Marta Kostyuk, Mirra Andreeva, Karolina Muchova, Ashlyn Krueger, and Veronika Kudermetova

The Leading Men

Carlos Alcaraz — The modest Spaniard often says he’s extremely nervous before big matches and downplays his winning four major titles—including the French Open and Wimbledon this year. At 21, Alcaraz says he’s not ready for comparisons with the legendary Big Three or deserving of a place “at the adult table.” But this happy warrior who plays the most thrill-packed, dynamic tennis in history and is a joy to watch. With a relatively easy draw to the semifinals where he’d likely face either Jannik Sinner or Daniil Medvedev, King Carlos should have enough energy to vanquish Novak Djokovic or anyone else to capture his second US Open crown.

Novak Djokovic — Tracy Austin, Pat Cash, and many experts have commented not just on his brilliance and longevity but his rare ability to stay highly motivated for 20 years. Today, James Blake told ESPN, “It’s really amazing that he’s 37, and we’re not talking about his swan song.” On the contrary, as proved by Djokovic’s 7-6, 7-6 conquest of Alcaraz in the gold medal match at the Paris Olympics to win the only prestigious title that had previously eluded him. “I’ve had some heartbreaking losses at the Olympic Games, so it intensified my motivation.” But the tennis GOAT who has everything wants more: a 25th Grand Slam singles title to break his tie with Margaret Court. Even with a great draw and meticulous preparation, The Djoker won’t quite make it against the much younger Alcaraz in a grueling, five-set final.

Jannik Sinner — Is Sinner, a consummate nice guy and sportsman, a sinner? Stunningly, he failed two drug tests back in March but successfully proved 'No Fault or Negligence' because it was an over-the-counter spray containing the substance Clostebol used to treat a wound at Indian Wells. How well the calm Australian Open champion can compartmentalize this blemish on his reputation and the concomitant criticism is the question. At Cincinnati, the world No. 1 answered it by stopping No. 4 Alexander Zverev and No. 6 Andrey Rublev in tough three-setters and then Frances Tiafoe 7-6, 6-2 in the final. Jannik has a tough draw with Tommy Paul, Medvedev, and Alcaraz in his half. With all that adversity, reaching the final would be a success story.

Alexander Zverev — A rocket first serve and a rock-solid backhand has rarely proved a winning combination. Perhaps you’ll understand part of the reason after reading this ATP analysis of the leading servers — https://www.atptour.com//en/news/zverev-infosys-atp-beyond-the-numbers-august-2024

Perhaps his 6-8 tiebreaker since losing to Alcaraz in the French Open final explains more. In any event, three Scandinavians with surnames starting with the letters “Ru” could give him stern tests: Emil Ruusuvuori (Finland), Casper Ruud (Norway), and Holger Rune (Denmark). And that’s just to make the semis. Taylor Fritz and Lorenzo Musetti are also in his quarter. The No. 4-ranked Zverev best showing at Flushing Meadows came in 2021 when beat players ranked outside the top 25 to reach the final. Sascha won’t enjoy that easy draw this year.

Daniil Medvedev — The funny Russian believes he has a serious chance to win another major at the US Open where he captured his first in 2021 when he upset Djokovic 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 to deny the Serb a calendar Grand Slam. Despite the No. 5 ranked Medvedev’s 1-5 record in major finals, he said, “Hopefully I can win some more Grand Slams. I believe in myself. I believe in my tennis.” If Daniil adopts smart tactics that must include closer positioning to the baseline and a net game to complement his defense, he could reach another final. Whatever happens, expect antics, quips, and mischief from this colorful character.

Dark Horses: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Jiri Lehecka, Jack Draper, Ben Shelton, and Jakub Mensik.