Not since 2004 when unseeded Gaston Gaudio shocked everyone—including himself—to win the French Open men’s title, has anyone other than Rafael Nadal been the favorite. That makes predicting the champion the most perilous and difficult challenge in 20 years.

Consider this: Nadal, stunningly unseeded, may not even make it out of the first round against resurgent, world No. 4 Alexander Zverev, who dropped only one set in winning the recent ATP Masters 1000 Rome title. Nadal has a 7-4 record this year—which he announced was his last—and ranks a lowly, almost unfathomable No. 276.

 

Consider this: Novak Djokovic, the GOAT, defending FO champion, and No. 1, who came within one match—a five-set loss to Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final—a year ago of capturing a rare Grand Slam, is suffering from a self-described lack of motivation and poor form. Nole hasn’t reached a tournament final or beaten a top-10 player. On his chances at Roland Garros, he admitted, “Of course I am worried... I haven't been playing good at all this year.”

 

That leaves Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner with golden opportunities to win their first major on clay. Alcaraz, the betting favorite, captured Indian Wells with victories over Sinner, Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev. But the Spaniard’s clay results have been lackluster, losing in the quarters to Andrey Rublev in his only event on the slowest surface.

 

No. 2-ranked Sinner seized his first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open and further established his hard-court prowess by winning Miami. But after withdrawing from Madrid and skipping Rome due to a hip injury, his health and current form is uncertain.

 

Barring upsets, the two rising stars will meet in the semifinals in the bottom half of the draw. Sinner has the easier draw. Alcaraz could face Stefanos Tsitsipas, Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and/or Sebastian Korda.

 

In the top half of the draw, the best bet to upset Djokovic, if Nole makes the quarterfinals, is two-time Roland Garros finalist Casper Ruud. At his best, the Norwegian plays like a right-handed Nadal. Assuming Zverev whips 14-time champ Nadal, the rocket-serving German's biggest threats should come from 18^th-seeded Karen Khachanov, 13^th-seeded Holger Rune, and 11^th-seeded Alex De Minaur.

 

Athleticism, versatility, physicality, and determination make Alcaraz my pick to win the first French Open of the post-Nadal era. He'll outlast Ruud in a five-set thriller

 

Who do you predict?

 

Dark horses: Nicolas Jarry, Zhizhen Zhang, Alejandro Tabilo, Arthur Cazaux