Why were there so many upsets at the 2025 Wimbledon?

Of the 64 total seeds in the ladies’ and gentlemen’s singles events, a record-tying 36 were beaten in the opening two rounds.

Shocking!

Upon further reflection, perhaps it wasn’t. That’s because of the many reasons a slight, medium, or heavy underdog, or maybe even not a true underdog, defeated a seeded “favorite.” Let’s review some of the ways players pull off upsets.

Brilliant Strategy — Not surprisingly, the wave of upsets continued in the third round and sank No. 6 seed Madison Keys, who, before The Championships, said, ironically, “I’ve always loved playing on grass. It just makes sense for my game.” Not against undersized (5’6”), aging (37), much lower-ranked (No. 104) Laura Siegemund, though. The German veteran, more known for her doubles success, had never gone past the Wimbledon second round before, stunned the reigning Australian Open champion 6-3, 6-3. During the second set of the fascinating duel between the power hitter and the clever counterpuncher, Pam Shriver, the astute ESPN analyst, said, “This is like Charlotte’s Web. Siegemund is spinning her web, and Keys can’t get out.” With a masterly array of drop shots, stinging and touch volleys, extremely low slices, occasional powerful groundstrokes, accurate lobs, and splendid defense, Siegemund disrupted and defused the power game of the discombobulated Keys and elicited a torrent of forced and unforced errors. It was a tactical masterpiece reminiscent of longshot Roberta Vinci’s shocking upset of Serena Williams in the 2015 US Open semifinals.

A Power Hitter in “The Zone” — When a slugger, renowned for banging lots of winners and errors, gets red-hot on a fast, slick surface like grass, there is often not much her opponent can do, even if it’s the No. 2 player in the world. That, in a nutshell, is what happened during No. 42-ranked Dayana Yastremska’s 7-6, 6-1 first-round upset over Coco Gauff. A little more than three weeks after Gauff captured the French Open for her second major title, she had a natural letdown after that ecstatic but short-lived high. Coco needed a relatively easy first-round foe, but got a brutal draw instead and was ambushed by a former junior star and 2024 Australian Open semifinalist. As ESPN analyst and former superstar Chris Evert said, “Every part of Yastremska’s game worked well. She has a high ceiling.” The 25-year-old Ukrainian put it more colorfully, saying, “I was really on fire.” Conversely, Gauff, whose serve and forehand broke down—as did Venus Williams’ flawed strokes in her bad patches and matches—wound up with just two aces versus nine double faults, and only six winners against 29 unforced errors. Unfortunately, Coco's vaunted foot speed and tenacious defense couldn’t counter Yastremska’s relentless offense.

Styles, Experience, and Expectations — In retrospect, Marin Cilic’s 6-4, 6-3, 1-6, 6-4 victory over Jack Draper, by far the best British man in its post-Andy Murray era, wasn’t much of an upset. Yes, Draper, a 23-year-old lefty with a big serve, strong topspin forehand, and solid backhand, had risen quickly to No. 4, but he had never advanced past the second round at Wimbledon, and he is a far cry from the Big Two—Sinner and Alcaraz—and Djokovic. As ESPN analyst James Blake pointed out, referring to the 6’6” Cilic’s ability to return Draper’s swerving serve, “Cilic has a huge wingspan and one of the best backhands, so this was a great [style] match-up for him.” The 36-year-old Cilic, the 2014 US Open champion, 2017 Wimbledon runner-up, and 2018 Australian Open finalist, had a huge advantage in big-match experience and in playing lefties. Critically, after two knee surgeries (2022 and 2024) derailed his career, he had a burning ambition to resurrect it, starting with Challenger-level events. He came into Wimbledon with only two Tour-level wins this season, but was due to regain his past form. Meanwhile, the pressure clearly did Draper in, particularly on the forehand, which he shanked and timidly sliced during crunch time. Sadly, one of his best weapons became a liability, and not even the boisterous, partisan crowd could help him.

Capsule Comments About Other Upsets — Third-seeded Alexander Zverev's 7-6 (3), 6-7 (, 6-3, 6-7 (5), 6-4 first-round loss to 72nd-ranked Arthur Rinderknech, his earliest elimination at a major since 2019, can be partly explained by his off-court anguish. Zverev confided, “It’s not a feeling on a tennis court, it’s just a life feeling in general. As I said, I never felt this way before. I don’t know. It’s difficult to find joy outside the tennis court for me at the moment. It’s something I’ve felt for the past few months. Again, I just feel generally very, very alone and very lonely.” In fairness, even though Rinderknech had only one other career win at Wimbledon, he recently made the quarterfinals at Queen’s Club, beating Ben Shelton and Reilly Opelka.

In a first-round match between an Italian clay courter and an American hard court star, No. 116th-ranked Elisabetta Cocciaretto, who had never before beaten a top-5 player, stunned No. 3 Jessica Pegula, the 2024 US Open finalist, 6-2, 6-3. Besides looking flat and uninspired, Pegula violated the Bill Tilden maxim—“Always change a losing game—and failed to use her first-rate volley and touch shots. So much for in-match coaching in this strange scenario.

Sheer determination made the difference in 192nd-ranked August Holmgren’s extremely close 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5, 7-6 (10-6) marathon upset over 21st seed Tomas Machac. Holmgren, at 27, the ultimate journeyman playing only his second Tour-level event, was down match points in the qualifying event and also against Machac, a Czech who has “top 10 talent,” according to former No. 1 Jim Courier. Holmgren, from Denmark, wound up with 81 winners and won 91% of his first-serve points. For four hours and 39 minutes, the former University of San Diego standout and drama major gave it the old college try on every point and provided lots of drama.

Holmgren and all the others who defied the odds had one indispensable asset in common: they steadfastly believed they could pull off the upset. 

Paul Fein — July 4, 2025