Observations about Ostapenko’s Domination of Swiatek

It is no mystery to Ostapenko. After she “upset” Swiatek 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 in the Stuttgart quarterfinals, the Latvian veteran said, “She’s a great clay-court player, but I won [Roland Garros in 2017], so I can say the same thing for myself.”

Here are some observations about this strange and (seemingly) upside-down rivalry.

First, in many sports—both individual and team—the better player or team seldom has a winning record against every other opponent during the “regular season” or in less important contests. For example, the Boston Celtics today played (and beat) the Orlando Magic in the opening game of their NBA Eastern Conference playoff. Although the Celtics are solid favorites to win the best-of-seven-game series, Orlando had a 2-1 edge in regular-season games, as did even Atlanta, a sub-.500 team against the Celtics.

Several things are relevant here. The Celtics played only three games each against Orlando and Atlanta during the long 82-game regular season. Injuries and current form often play a role in such a small sample size. The same factors hold true in tennis, plus another one: some matches come before or after one or both players are in their primes. For example, former No. 1 Lleyton Hewitt won his last four matches against 14-time Grand Slam champion Pete Sampras during the twilight of Sampras’s storied career.

Second, styles matter in head-to-head matchups. Power players have always given Swiatek problems, particularly on hard courts. They essentially beat her to the punch whenever they can. “I tried to be aggressive today, to take time away from her,” said Ostapenko. “Because when she has time, she’s playing very well.”

That strategy also has worked for several other players, especially Elena Rybakina, a one-dimensional heavy hitter with a 4-4 career record against Swiatek. Iga was upset by Madison Keys in the 2025 Australian Open semifinals, No. 50-ranked Linda Noskova in the 2024 Australian Open third round, Ostapenko in the 2023 US Open fourth round, Rybakina in the 2023 Australian Open fourth round, and No. 30-ranked Daniella Collins in the 2022 Australian Open semifinals.

These and other power players attack Swiatek’s second serve, and in some matches, either out-steady or overpower her backhand. In short, they bring out the worst in Iga's game and mostly avoid grueling rallies that the speedy Pole dominates with her terrific forehand.

Third, confidence is critical to beat a star of Swiatek’s magnitude. While Swiatek remains the Queen of Clay, the rest of the Tour knows she’s quite beatable on hard courts and grass. Conversely, Iga, who looks increasingly frustrated and unconfident, has done little, if anything, to diversify her game — unlike current No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, who has added angles and drop shots and excels at the net.

Ostapenko lacks Sabalenka’s athleticism, explosive serve, versatility, and lean physique, but exudes confidence against Swiatek. Imagine how much better the plump Ostapenko would play, particularly defensively, if she were in tiptop physical condition, as she was when she captured the 2017 French Open.

Sometimes, a decided underdog has a short but torrid spell when he has the favorite’s number. Two examples come to mind. In 1997, Magnus Larsson, a hard-hitting, 6’4” Swede, upset Pete Sampras, who was in his prime, in three straight matches on three different surfaces—outdoor clay, outdoor hard courts, and indoor carpet. That same year, the 5’2” Amanda Coetzer, a super-smart and steady South African, upset superstar Steffi Graf, who had yet to regain her form after returning from injuries and illness, three times! Coetzer pulled it off at the Australian and French Opens, and added insult to injury with a shocking 6-0, 6-1 thrashing at the German Open in front of Steffi’s fervent home country fans.

Coetzer qualified for nine consecutive year-end WTA Championships, but she boasted another, less-known claim to fame. She was one of only four women to defeat Graf more than once in Grand Slam matches.

It will be fascinating to see if Ostapenko can continue her amazing domination of Swiatek during this young season and for the rest of their careers.

Paul Fein — April 20, 2025